The Brokenness of Government

Venezuelans wait in line for food at a supermarket businessinsider.com
Venezuelans wait in line for food at a supermarket               businessinsider.com

The world is looking like a progressively scary place, and it’s not from the usual bad guy good guy conflict. Its what passes for a government nowadays.  Governance as defined by the dictionaries suggests a governmental body is to establish policies, monitor their implementation, and assume accountability,in order to provide for the prosperity and enhancement of the governed.  Increasingly, real governance is the last thing these governments have in mind.  The swelling size, scope, and grasp for power is their calling, and the people who have to put up with them are increasingly angry, and increasingly desperate. Media takes passively takes pictures and reports the presence of the increasing chaos and occasional violence, but is blind to accept the cause as a failure of the governing class for what it would mean for the perceived notion of an ideal society.  The longer the disconnect remains in perception, the larger the risk of a real calamity developing.

The bloated government:  World history has not seen an economy the size of the United States of America.  For a country with an annual greater than 17 trillion dollar marketplace of prosperity, the government has progressively grown to install its brand of ‘fairness’ on the interactions through regulations.  The original design of a limited government with checks and balances has been thrown out with an exploding executive branch, that thinks every decision an individual makes should be weighted on equality of outcome, and a legislative branch that has abandoned its role in assuring budgetary restraint and oversight guidance.   The anger of the population is palpable this election season. A healthcare program built on monstrous legislation and ever more monstrous regulation fails on every conceivable level,  but no one will do anything because it is a centerpiece of a president’s legacy. The nation’s debt balloons out of all conceivable proportion, having doubled in just 8 years weighed against the previous 230 with over 100 trillion in unfunded mandates, more worth than exists in the world, and nobody will do anything because they risk their re-election. Laws are that define governmental integrity, paying of taxes, respect for individual privacy, and care with the nation’s secrets are blatantly ignored by the governing class, and no clean up of the corrupting and corroding influence is undertaken, as the governing class protect their own.  Bloated beyond all credible size, the government exists to exist, to redistribute, and to grow some more.

The Utopian government:  Governments more firmly are designed to construct societies as utopians wish they would be, rather than how societies best function.  The current free-fall in Venezuela is the Primus Inter Pares.  Despite the explosion of national wealth and massive industry expansion brought by the discovery of Venezuela’s enormous oil reserves, the inequities created between the poor and the flourishing middle class and nouveau riche led to the election of a uber-socialist government of Hugo Chavez, patterned after the equally utopian autocracy of Cuba.  The nationalizing of the oil industry allowed the government coffers to fill directly, providing patronage money for electoral success through 2 cent a gallon gasoline, and essentially free goods, transportation,  and housing for the poor.  The inevitable collapse of infrastructure in the oil industry, collapse of oil prices, and explosion of the black market has led to only more delusional moves by the Chavez successor Maduro, and the doubling down of every economic malfeasance.   The printing of money with rampant inflation destroying currency value has led to the monetary black market, price controls destroying any available goods, and increasing enforcement of these unworkable decisions by government backed thugs, a pattern seen over and over in countries like Zimbabwe and North Korea, but it has not distracted the Venezuelan autocrats one bit.  Suffering is the daily bread of utopian paradise.

The Nanny State Government:  When the European Union implemented fully the Schengen Area in 1999, it was to tell the 400 million Europeans under the union they knew the world better than any of their inhabitants.  Designed to eliminate borders by eliminating passports, it put all trade and immigration under the province of a supra-national government in Brussels who wants to eliminate 2600 years of cultural diversity and create a european superstate.  The single currency followed close behind with the adoption of the Euro, and the vision of vast continent of a like minded social compact gave the governors in Brussels ecstatic chills.  Give Greece the Euro, and a Greek will become efficient and frugal, undifferentiated from the Germanic.  Open the borders, and the immigrants will flow and provide low cost labor for the overseers, liberalize themselves, and become the Europeans of the tomorrow, joyous in the vision of a protected life, and immune to  genetic callings of their tribe.  The whole Potemkin Village is crashing down with the onslaught of a million undocumented immigrants from the Middle East and Africa with little to separate them but their desire to be brought under the nanny state economic safety net, and their complete distain for any contact with the European social libertine streak.  The various governments have determined to ignore the severe cultural clashes that express themselves violently in assault, rape, and even murder and pretend this has nothing to do with the greater assimilation.  The inevitable result is the rise of hard right movement predicated upon protecting their homes, family, and culture, but using the tools that echo the vigilante actions of times past with their inherent dangers.

The Adversarial Government:  Governments reacting to any political activity to limit growing efforts to limit their scope or power are increasingly hostile and frankly dangerous.  Individuals who looked to develop opposing political views in the United States to the prevailing government found their phones tapped, the tax returns audited, and their businesses hounded by governmental agencies.  In Russia the would be czar has used a more effective tool of at least indirectly supporting the murder of political opponents through means as diverse and criminal as street assassination and radioactive poison.  In China, the preferred means, is societal erasure, with massive prison sentences. In the nascent state of ISIL, the medieval means of drowned, burning alive and beheading are used with the joy of totalitarian zeal.  These governments are no longer responsive to public pressures for they have assured themselves that they are too big to fail, too powerful to resist. In the world where government is your boss and not your servant ,the temptation to use available levers of power and hide behind the bureaucracy is great. On such assumption, revolutions are borne.

The Demagogue Government:  The governments are progressively fronted by Demagogue Leaders.  Appealing to the raw emotions of inequity and promoting the assurance of equality of outcome, the politics of leaders is to demand the increasing accumulation of powers in the hands of a single individual who will protect the people against the weakness of deliberative processes or the blind justice based on laws not emotions.  From Obama to Trump, the promise is you can have what you want, you need only a leader who is willing to take any means necessary to achieve the end result.  The checks and balances placed to prevent just such demagoguery is to be subverted and overwhelmed.  In a society where the hard work of democracy seems passe’ and the idea of principles of governance antiquated to the speed of our current discourse, a strong handed leader seems the easy out.

We are entering into dangerous times with our eyes half closed.  As a member of the diminishing group of people willing to discourse and legislate to a proper end, we need to be forceful in our defense of the constitutional concept.  Listen before you speak. Read a book, and then another opposed. Think about our past, and reason about our future. Demand competence. Demand oversight of your government.  Protect freedom of expression above all.  Respect your traditions, and teach their value. Secure your future opportunity and guard it against all poseurs who would usurp it.  And …make sure those who govern, that they do so only with the expressed assent of the governed and that they are under the same laws that govern all free society – none different, none selective.  Hopefully, real push back, and the self correcting forces of an alert and engaged society will protect the world against the dark intent of predators and scoundrels.

Message: Go vote your principles, and if necessary, throw the bums out. Tomorrow is February 1st, and the future world we will live in is in our electoral hands, starting in Iowa.  The world is watching carefully to see if there’s still a chance, that in the land that once was the beacon for hope for those under the yoke, good will still prevail.

 

 

Oh Boy – Here We Go…

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The chaotic and unpredictable American process for electing a chief executive is about to commence.  On February 1st, the 2016 Iowa caucuses take place and the first delegates to a national convention for each party representing the peoples’ choice will be selected.  The total delegate count received for the winner of each party in Iowa is likely to be less than one half of one percent of the total amount needed to receive the party nominations, yet it continues to carry the outsized impact expected of a much larger state.  The reason is simple – as George Herbert Walker Bush stated in 1980, the winner gets the Big Mo – the mantle of being a winner in a crowded field of aspirants.  The traditional start has been Iowa, a caucus, and New Hampshire, a primary.  The caucus process is of course run by political parties, and is therefore a device by which the enthusiasms of individual  blocs supporting political causes can best find their voice.  The primary is run by the state government, and reflects the whims of a voting public that reflects the candidate impressions of the moment.  The candidates like the structure because it allows predictability in geography and media expense, and lends to as ‘equal’ a playing field as is possible for the long shots.  And thus, the continuing drive of the start of the political process further and further back towards the previous election.

The people 'who would be President' 2016
The Republican hopefuls ‘who would be President’ 2016

It already seems in 2016, that this electoral process has gone on forever.  In the republican field, seventeen candidates filed papers to run, and before the first vote has even occurred, six have been defeated by the process.  Walker, Jindal, Perry, Patakis – the proven executives at the state level, thought to be voters’ desire after the election of the experience light Obama, fell quickly.  The gadfly Senator Lindsey Graham and the Republican Party executive Jim Gilmore.  Others have had their moment in the sun – Fiorina, the outsider computer executive-who used her preparedness to shine in the debates. Carson – the surgeon who started the anyone but a politician frenzy.  Rand Paul – the owner of his father’s libertarian legacy. The two former Iowa caucus winners, Santorum and Huckabee. The six who are truly left standing for the first vote, come in with the scars of a titanic battle already underway.  Bush – the legacy candidate, saddled with the name, establishment money, and a diminished political skill set, forced to strike out against all others to try to survive to a two man race. Kasich and Christie – the Curmudgeons candidates, attempting to hold up the governor as superior manager mantle, damaged with the defeats of Walker, Perry, and Jindal. Cruz and Rubio – the Senators are the Future candidates – potential real electoral talents that legitimately can take on Trump or Clinton, but only after they have fatally destroyed the other, for there can be only one.  And of course, Trump the Demagogue, who stands athwart the entire field, watching joyfully, as the rest pick each other off.

The democrats are under essentially the same schedule, and every bit as unsettled a process.  Classic for this party,  a larger fix is built in to remove surprises for the entrenched powers – almost 25 percent of the delegates are unpledged,  super-delegates designated by the party, allowing considerable manipulation of the outcome to the highest bidder. The presumptive Queen,Hillary Clinton, assumed to proceed in a cake walk in an inordinately weak field of competitors, is being staggered by her profound tendency to be her self. Her inherent unlikability as a retail politician, exposed easily by Obama in 2008, has been  magnified by progressive evidence of her deceitful incompetence in her time in government.  She very likely could be the first nominated candidate to have to face a felony inditement for her willful exposure of state secrets in setting up and using a private unprotected server,and her attempt to destroy evidence. One would assume that to be enough to bury even the most preening candidate, but at the same time, she must fight off a 74 year old Socialist, who appears more energetic and real to the voters than she ever could, forcing her into ever more radical statements that blunt the veneer of her election inevitability.

The artillery is coming fast and furious.  Joe Biden waiting for the Clinton Collapse.  Mayor Bloomberg possibly joining the fray on the idea that America’s Billionaires Know Better, and the real possibility of an election resolved in the House of Representatives.  The National Review Editorial Board declaring the Republican front runner is a liberal democrat. The FBI possibly  forced to detail the obvious; one of our leading Presidential candidates is a felon. Donald Trump determining that whatever he thought yesterday and whatever he said today, doesn’t have to be what he believes tomorrow – and you will learn to love it.

From Iowa and New Hampshire, to South Carolina and Nevada, to the 15 state  Super Tuesday and beyond.  Perhaps by April 1, we will have settled on the two candidates to lead this nation.  Or simply selected out such unpalatable realities that we will see a multiple party  3 or 4 candidate presidential election free for all.  Whatever happens, it will be exciting, unpredictable, uplifting, brash, ludicrous, inclusive, and definitely – American.

Trump Change

 

Donald Trump salon.com
Donald Trump          salon.com

The entry of Donald Trump into the political arena was met by most (certainly Ramparts)  as an insignificant sideline to what would be the compelling stories of the 2016 race. Last spring,  according to the ‘experts’, Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush were the politicians that had the famous supposed gravitas and organizational heft that would swallow the rest of their opponents in short order, and compared to such political leviathans, Donald Trump was considered ‘chump change’. The first vote has yet to be taken, but indications are that Trump is anything but political chump change. Instead, the political world is slowly coming to the realization that this etherial phenomena may be significantly more than previous sideshows, and what we are looking at more and more is the Main Event  –  Trump Change.

Enduring political phenomenae have to be understood in their contexts.  This is the reflection of both the unique qualities of the political figure and the times in which they reside. Trump is not the first celebrity attempting to capture the wave of public recognition and turn it into political votes – Arnold Schwarzenegger and Jessie Ventura, among others,  brought comic book hero status to the political arena and prospered.  Nor is he the first demagogue – the list is infinitely longer displaying that trait.  What he is capturing is that very special American desire that, if ignored by the establishment long enough, there is a real desire to ‘stick it to the Man’.   The rapidly increasing money amounts pouring into political campaigns have brought value to the distressing trend to make to contrary political philosophies progressively more  diametrically opposed to each other, with the victory of either felt to be intolerable to the other.  A liberal or conservative label is no longer about political ideas as it is about sacred immutable oaths, to which deviation or compromise is anathema.  The average voter lodged on losing side of the argument has his nose rubbed in the loss by opponents, and demand for increased loyalty by the losers.  To which the average voter is progressively responding with the Trumpian call to arms  – You Are All Losers.

Trump as the hybrid political creature Celebrity Demagogue is immediately recognizable to people as someone who will say what they feel and cannot say, and someone too celebrity big to be harassed into shutting up. When he is called offensive, he becomes more offensive. When the establishment remarks that what he expounds is just not said in polite politically correct society, he becomes more politically incorrect.  And the crowds love it.

Serious political observers are focusing their attention on the Trump phenomena. The essays are important and should be read in their entirety, as they are very prescient in what is going on and say it so much better than I. Peggy Noonan of the Wall Street Journal describes Trump as the “Great Disruptor,” :

But issues do matter, and Mr. Trump has functioned this year not as a great communicator or great compromiser but as the great disrupter. He brags that he has brought up great questions and forced other candidates to face them and sometimes change their stands—and he has. He changed the debate on illegal immigration. He said he’d build a wall and close the border and as the months passed and his competitors saw his surge, they too were suddenly, clearly, aggressively for ending illegal immigration.

The great Mark Steyn attempts to inject the Trump virus directly, by attending a Trump rally in Vermont.  Steyn, one of the intuitive observers of mass culture ever, senses a significant part Trump’s power is derived from his authenticity with the voters. Not Jimmy Carter authenticity  “I will never lie to you” but the authenticity that Trump knows that people know how the world works, and they know Trump is authentic in letting them know, he does too:

What is “authenticity” in contemporary politics? Is it a man who parlayed a routine Congressional career into a lucrative gig at Lehman Brothers presenting himself as the son of a mailman? Or is it a billionaire with a supermodel wife dropping the pretense that he’s no different from you stump-toothed losers in the rusting double-wides? Trump’s lack of pandering extends to America, too. He doesn’t do the this-is-the-greatest-country-in-the-history-of-countries shtick that Mitt did last time round. He isn’t promising, like Marco Rubio, a “second American century”. His pitch is that the American dream is dead – which, for many Americans, it is. In 1980, Jimmy Carter’s “malaise” was an aberration – a half-decade blip in three decades of post-war US prosperity that had enabled Americans with high school educations to lead middle-class lives in a three-bedroom house on a nice-sized lot in an agreeable neighborhood. In 2015, for many Americans, “malaise” is not a blip, but a permanent feature of life that has squeezed them out of the middle class. They’re not in the mood for bromides about second American centuries: They’d like what’s left of their own lifespan to be less worse.

That’s the other quality on display: at certain points – for example, when Trump started talking about “beautiful Kate in San Francisco” being killed by an illegal immigrant – I turned around and saw men and women tearing up.

Steyn reviews many facets of the Trump phenomena and the article captures the uniquely American political experience that allows such phenomena to flourish.  In a parlimentary system, the party puts the party first, and a candidate flying by the seat of his pants will be cut off before any momentum can risk the party structure.  Not so in the American model.  The contest for leadership starts in the local barns of Iowa and the storefronts of New Hampshire, where every candidate story is vetted voter to voter. The power of this living room politic was first promulgated when Georgia governor Jimmy Carter came out of political obscurity to win the Democrat Iowa Caucus in 1976 and springboard into national prominence and eventual presidential election victory.  Ever since, candidates have hope for the springboard effect, based on having to actually entice relatively very few voters.  In 2012, Rick Santorum secured 29000 votes,to win the Iowa caucus, likely not enough votes to win an attorney general contest in Polk County, Iowa. yet Santorum parleyed the momentum into a second place finish behind Mitt Romney for the nomination.  The assumption is that local organization carries the day, but with the crowds Trump has proven to be able to draw, it is conceivable that the usual door to door techniques will be turned on its head, and Trump will blow out the model.

Americans at the national level have proven resistant to demagogues, but the average American’s faith in the constitutional process has been degrating for decades, and it may prove that this year the immunity is gone.  Trump is transcendantly without policy drafts, position papers, or a kitchen cabinet of advisors.  He defines political errors as the result of people without the personal skills or intellect to do better, and he is that better facilitator of the Art of the Deal that we have been missing.  Whether this will translate into votes that will coalesce as his opponents fall by the wayside, or whether he be cornered by increasingly stronger opponents as the voters become more serious about the next President given the performance of the last two, is soon to play out.  What is clear is that Trump Change is real change – more visceral, honest politics that may yet bring out the best in our system and candidates simply to prevent a demagogue from destroying the system of government for good.  If Trump has at least  managed to have slapped America out of its somulence, Trump Change will be all to the good.

 

Space – The Frontier Re-Opens For Business

Falcon 9 and the re-entry capablity
Falcon 9 and the re-entry capablity

In a universe of wrong headed decisions, President Obama was credited by Ramparts in 2013 with recognizing the power of competition and free markets at least once in his Presidency, and allowing private industry to attempt to restore America’s capacity to lead in space.  In 2009, the President re-ordered the space budget to allow private industries to have their attempt at being a successor to the Space Shuttle for low earth orbit transport.  The critics contained some legendary explorers such as Jim Lovell and Neil Armstrong, who vociferously objected to the many future concepts being out of the control of a unifying agency like NASA.  Their doubts were informed; successful rocket programs like USA’s Saturn and Russia’s Soyuz had been the exclusive provence of governments and private concepts were conceptual only.

NASA, the government agency that had led a revolution of manned space exploration that culminated in multiple landings on the moon in the early 1970s, had spent the next forty fumbling with various near earth projects with reduced budgets and increasing risk adverse decisions.  The Space Shuttle was NASA’s only follow through on innovative projects, but it proved budget devouring and unstable, with a statistical catastrophic risk assessment of 1 in 60 flights proving uncomfortably true, with loss of the Challenger in 1986 and the Columbia in 2003 prominent in the 135 flights.  Having built five vehicles estimated at over a billion dollars apiece, 2 were lost for a total vehicle failure rate of 40% and a mission failure rate of 1.5%, easy enough to sink any other experimental craft.  Added to this ominous statistic was the reality that this re-usable spacecraft proved exceedingly expensive to re-use, with a planned for 50 flights a year turning out to be closer to 4 flights a year, resulting in an astronomical cost for the life of the program of over a billion dollars a flight.  Beautiful as it was, such costs accompanying such danger in a craft limited to a 150-600 miles in space maximum range was not feasible to continue beyond its thirty years of existence.

The answer in 2009 was not clear to anyone – except Elon Musk, and a progressively competitive group of visionaries. Innovation has always been the province of visionaries and Musk is the most visionary of visionaries, having created Pay Pal and Tesla as two examples of visions ‘people’ said could never be successful.  His most audacious leap was a company called SpaceX and he sees space as not only a commercial venture but the source of mankind’s eventual salvation.  If Earth is potentially not sustainable someday, then Mars may be where we evolve as a sustainable species.  Such over the horizon thinking has not kept him from decerning the answers to some of the current most vexing issues in space travel and industry, dominated most by its overwhelming cost.  The SpaceX view has been to achieve affordable and reproducible private solutions to the science problems of space, and he has fashioned an enviably American sheen to the innovation.  In developing the moon project, the consideration of re-usable boosters proved impractical, and success was eventually achieved through massive rocketry, rockets in multiple stages capable of only single use.  Each rocket was felt to require building from scratch with new parts as the old ones were disposed of in the previous flight.  In 2015 dollars Musk noted a multi-stage rocket capable of escaping the atmosphere required at minimum 60 million dollars of single use expenditure, with 70% of the cost involved in losing the first stage booster.  Musk identified this as the fatal flaw in any commercial enterprise as only governments can possibly absorb such waste.  He from the start considered reusability foundational and the SpaceX rocket creations have been ultimately designed to solve the reusablity problem.

The Falcon 9 reusable rocket vision
The Falcon 9 reusable rocket vision

Given the massive forces at work on a rocket it was thought that the idea that the boosters could be recovered and reused was a pipe dream.  The first attempts to land the booster seemed to prove out the difficulty:

The team at SpaceX was not deterred; nor could they afford to be.  Unlike a government agency with few timetables and minimal budget limitations, SpaceX had real private competition.  Jeff Bezos, a billionaire with deeper pockets than Musk and every bit the visionary, succeed in November in doing the improbable with his Blue Origin rocket booster, returning it intact to Earth.

Certainly the comparisons between the two rockets weren’t apples to apples.  Bezos’ rocket was designed for an atmosphere launch of people to 62 miles, with a lifting power of 100,000 pounds of thrust and a top speed of Mach 1.5.  SpaceX Falcon 9 is designed for low earth orbit above 100 miles, achieves over a million pounds thrust, and reaches speeds above Mach 5.5.  From such speeds it needs to return in a different trajectory without collapsing, right itself and control decent and land an infinitely heavier, thinner, and taller rocket full of explosive fuel.  Orders  of magnitude more difficult, but after all, Blue Origin had achieved a landing and the visionary Musk was potentially second best.  But through such challenges, real progress takes place.

On December 21st, 2015 Musk realized the space dream that had existed from the days of Jules Verne:

And now the game is on.  Private innovation has cracked the code of re-usablity with Musk annoucing the Falcon 9 sustained no damage  with re-entry and is ready to be used again.  The possiblity of a platform tens of millions cheaper than traditional vehicles for space makes a profit possible, and a profit drives more smart companies into the mix.

Thanks to Elon Musk, innovation is bursting out all over, and America is back in space to stay.