November 6th, 2018 brings that time honored tradition in the United States – the biennial national election day. Ramparts has had its own election tradition – of generally doing a poor job of predicting results – maybe just a little too much leaning on hoped for outcomes, and not enough objective recognition of the fickle nature of the American electorate. This is a country that uniformly blames the side they just elected, and looks to throw the bums out. Ramparts doesn’t show prejudice as a wrong headed prognosticator – picking Romney over Obama, Clinton over Trump, and missing the 2010 backlash entirely. Then again, significantly more qualified observers and pollsters managed to blow those calls as well, particularly the herculean Trump upset. The 2018 battle has been at various times promoted as a blue wave, a disastrous Senate map for Democrats full of Trump states, and High Noon for the Resistance. The so called off year election, where absent a Presidential candidate at the head of the ticket, has in the past been assumed to focus more on local factors. The ubiquitous nature of social media and reams of money aligned with the ever increasing polarization of views has, however, made even local dog catcher elections ‘pivotal’. No, really. Pivotal. Pandering, buying influence and votes, denigrating an opponent, describing an opposition triumph as Armageddon for the country – well, that’s what we would call the American Way. And don’t you know , millions are going to go to that voting booth and proudly do their part, to celebrate the process one more time. I will be one of them.
If there is no earthshaking prediction based on inside information I am able to offer to either assure you or appall you based on the outcome, at least a few observations are in order.
The House of Representatives – A Lighter Shade of Blue: The 2010 election was epical for Republicans. Feasting off disillusionment with the creaky health care shenanigans of the Obama administration, a massive wave of contrarians were voted to both state house legislatures and governorships, the effects of which are still mightily felt today. Put in position to interpret the 2010 Census, these legislatures re-configured the electoral map and republicans have held a natural advantage at both the state and national legislature level since. Recognizing the impenetrable coalitions of urban suburbs and inner city democratic machines that keep the voting loyalty of even the dear departed, republican legislatures let the cities have their wins, and carved out their own districts of winnable voters. this has led to an 8 year dynasty of a republican led house, and has infuriated democrats who see the people’s house as theirs by eminent domain. A flurry of lawsuits by democrats to overturn the districting maps has begun to bite, mostly prominently in Pennsylvania, where the state’s liberal Supreme Court overturned the map and likely overturned 5 republican districts into the democrat column. This is a terrific head start in a world where a switch of 24 seats would lead to a Democrat majority and a return to a Pelosi run circus. The traditional trend of the next election after a Presidential election is for the President’s party to lose significant seats in Congress – in keeping with the American tradition of never give carte blanche to any party. The Trump phenomena however is the most unpollable electorate of modern political polling and all bets are off picking the outcome. A democrat win of the House means Speaker Pelosi and Committee Chairmen Nadler, Waters, and Clyburn. Let the circus commence! True, juicy justice in outcome would be a Democrat pick up of 22 seats, so close to victory, yet frustratingly just short of power, pulling the hypocrisy wool off everyone’s eyes for good, as the self destructive liberal wing would devourer what little carcass of what was left of any discerning progressives that still believed in their country, More likely? A painful two years of nonstop Trump badgering, bashing and hectoring if they win, and two years of nothing ever getting done.
The Senate – Where has All The Money Gone?: Since the 17th Amendment to the Constitution was passed in 1913, the election of Senators have been by the direct vote of the people. Given that each state staggers its Senate elections, the Senate races tend to have very intense individual focus on the candidates, and as such, have elevated the job to national prominence and influence. And we are talking serious influence. Take for instance the Texas Senate race between Ted Cruz the incumbent Senator and his challenger Beto O’Rourke. Apparently the job of a Senator is so influential that over 130 million dollars ( that’s 130 million!) will have been spent in the effort to engage in the race. The outside money pouring in doesn’t care about local issues; it cares about converting that money into power on the national stage. There are many other examples of similarly egregious expenditures for what is supposed to be a contest of ideas rather than influence peddling, but the mass of money spent has made any developed discussion of ideas an archaic concept. Blank slates like Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin will win, not because she brings any of her own talent to the solving of the nation’s problems, but because the money will allow the destruction of her opponent as any kind of recognizable alternative. Millions of dollars are standing behind Baldwin because she is a willing shill for other people’s ideas. The fall in intellect from Russ Feingold to Tammy Baldwin is steep indeed.
The Trump rallies , with his ever present ability to pull massive, enthusiastic crowds suggest that the President will likely have real influence in the Trump carried states of 2016. Every election there is a race or two from each party that presents as a total surprise. I suspect the pattern will continue with a prominent Republican and a prominent Democrat going down to defeat, but the Trumpian gravity is likely I think to pull 3 or 4 uphill candidates into a position to win. Likely states? Indiana and North Dakota – but the tally could easily include Florida, Missouri, and Montana. 54-55 Republican Senators I think is not out of the question. If the House flips, the Senate will need every one the 54 to somehow keep the country on track.
As soon as the results are tallied on November7th, the process of reassessing the power players will begin, and with it, the landscape of challengers to Trump in 2020. The unbound economy, the flourishing job market, relative peace, and a returning sense of confidence that is part of our current national landscape would normally be a potent force for staying the course. America will always remain uncomfortable with such bounty, and look for ways to do penance for success. A sharp leftward turn in the 2018 election would suggest the country looked at the prospect of America becoming great again, and decided it turned out to be not worthy after all. A stay the course election, and we may all have to get out our MAGA hats.